Evaluating the decentralisation of the Spanish healthcare system: a data envelopment analysis approach.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to answer whether the central government has been more efficient than the regional governments or vice versa. Likewise, through the analysis of the data, the aim was to shed light on whether decentralisation has had a positive impact on the efficiency of the hospital sector or not. DESIGN: In this paper, we have used data envelopment analysis to analyse the evolution of efficiency in the last 10 Autonomous Regions to receive healthcare competences at the end of 2001. PARTICIPANTS: For this study, we have taken into account the number of beds and full-time workers as inputs and the calculation of basic care units as outputs to measure the efficiency of the Spanish public sector, private sector and jointly in the years 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017 for the last Autonomous Regions receiving healthcare competences. RESULTS: Of the Autonomous Regions that received the transfers at the end of 2001, the following stand out for their higher efficiency growth: the Balearic Islands (81.44% improvement), the Madrid Autonomous Region, which practically reached absolute efficiency levels (having increased by 63.77%), and La Rioja which, together with the Balearic Islands which started from very low values, improved notably (46.13%). CONCLUSION: In general, it can be observed that the transfer of responsibilities in the health sector has improved efficiency in the National Health Service. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C14; I18; H21.

Practical approach for atrial cardiomyopathy characterization in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes progressive structural and electrical changes in the atria that can be summarized within the general concept of atrial remodeling. In parallel, other clinical characteristics and comorbidities may also affect atrial tissue properties and make the atria susceptible to AF initiation and its long-term persistence. Overall, pathological atrial changes lead to atrial cardiomyopathy with important implications for rhythm control. Although there is general agreement on the role of the atrial substrate for successful rhythm control in AF, the current classification oversimplifies clinical management. The classification uses temporal criteria and does not establish a well-defined strategy to characterize the individual-specific degree of atrial cardiomyopathy. Better characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may improve the decision-making process on the most appropriate therapeutic option. We review current scientific evidence and propose a practical characterization of the atrial substrate based on 3 evaluation steps starting with a clinical evaluation (step 1), then assess outpatient complementary data (step 2), and finally include information from advanced diagnostic tools (step 3). The information from each of the steps or a combination thereof can be used to classify AF patients in 4 stages of atrial cardiomyopathy, which we also use to estimate the success on effective rhythm control.

Enhancing patient outcomes: Integrating electronic cardiology consultation in primary care for cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cancer patients with concomitant cardiovascular (CV) disease is on the rise due to improved cancer prognoses. The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term outcomes of cancer patients referred to a cardiology department (CD) via primary care using e-consultation. METHODS: We analysed data from cancer patients with prior referrals to a CD between 2010 and 2021 (n = 6889) and compared two care models: traditional in-person consultations and e-consultations. In e-consultation model, cardiologists reviewed electronic health records (e-consultation) to determine whether the demand could be addressed remotely or necessitated an in-person consultation. We used an interrupted time series regression model to assess outcomes during the two periods: (1) time to cardiology consultation, (2) rates of all-cause and CV related hospital admissions and (3) rates of all-cause and CV-related mortality within the first year after the initial consultation or e-consultation at the CD. RESULTS: Introduction of e-consultation for cancer patients referred to cardiology care led to a 51.8% reduction (95%CI: 51.7%-51.9%) in waiting times. Furthermore, we observed decreased 1-year incidence rates, with incidence rate ratios (iRRs) [IC95%] of .75 [.73-.77] for CV-related hospitalizations, .43 [.42-.44] for all-cause hospitalizations, and .87 [.86-.88] for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to traditional in-person consultations, an outpatient care program incorporating e-consultation for cancer patients significantly reduced waiting times for cardiology care and demonstrated safety, associated with lower rates of hospital admissions.

Impact of initiation of SGLT2 inhibitor treatment on the development of arrhythmias in patients with implantable cardiac devices.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have been associated with improved prognosis in patients with heart failure, but their impact on atrial arrhythmic (AA) and ventricular arrhythmic (VA) events is not fully understood. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study included patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators who initiated treatment with SGLT2i. AA and VA events were compared in 2 time periods for each patient: 1 year before and 1 year after starting SGLT2i. RESULTS: The study included 195 patients (66.8 [61.3-73.1] years, 18.5% women). In the post-SGLT2i period, there was a reduction in the percentage of patients with any VA (pre: 52.3% vs post: 30.3%; P<.001) and clinically relevant VA (excluding nonsustained ventricular tachycardia) (pre: 21.5% vs post: 8.7%; P<.001). There was also a decrease in the number of episodes per patient/y of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (pre: 2 (1-5) vs post: 1 (0-2); P<.001) and sustained ventricular tachycardia (pre: 1 (1-3) vs post: 0 (0-2); P=0.046). However, no differences were observed in the prevalence of AA (24.7% vs 18.8%; P=.117) or the burden of atrial fibrillation (pre: 0% (0-0.1) vs post: 0% (0-0); P=.097). CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of SGLT2i treatment was associated with a decrease in the percentage of patients with relevant VA but this effect was not observed for AA.

Impact of a clinician-to-clinician electronic consultation in heart failure patients with previous hospital admissions.

Aims: To evaluate the impact of an outpatient care management programme that includes a clinician-to-clinician e-consultation on delay time in care, hospital admissions, and mortality in a high-risk group of patients with heart failure (HF) and previous episodes of HF hospitalization (HFH). Methods and results: We selected 6444 HF patients who visited the cardiology service at least once between 2010 and 2021. Of these, 4851 were attended in e-consult, and 2230 had previous HFH. Using an interrupted time series regression model, we analysed the impact of incorporating e-consult into the healthcare model in the group of patients with HFH and evaluated the elapsed time to cardiology care, HF, cardiovascular (CV), and all-cause hospital admissions and mortality, calculating the incidence relative risk (iRR). In the group of patients with HFH, the introduction of e-consult substantially decreased waiting times to cardiology care (8.6 [8.7] vs. 55.4 [79.9] days, P < 0.001). In that group of patients, after e-consult implantation, hospital admissions for HF were reduced (iRR [95%CI]: 0.837 [0.840-0.833]), 0.900 [0.862-0.949] for CV and 0.699 [0.678-0.726] for all-cause hospitalizations. There was also lower mortality (iRR [95%CI]: 0.715 [0.657-0.798] due to HF, 0.737 [0.764-0.706] for CV and 0.687 [0.652-0.718] for all-cause). The improved outcomes after e-consultation implementation were significantly higher in the group of patients with previous HFH. Conclusion: In patients with HFH, an outpatient care programme that includes an e-consult significantly reduced waiting times to cardiology care and was safe, with a lower rate of hospital admissions and mortality in the first year.

Symptom burden guiding invasive electrophysiological study in paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia: The believe SVT registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Patients with palpitations clinically suggestive of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT) are often managed conservatively until ECG-documentation of the tachycardia, leading to high impact on life quality and healthcare resource utilization. We evaluated results of electrophysiological study (EPS), and ablation when appropriate, among these patients, with special focus on gender differences in management. METHODS: BELIEVE SVT is a European multicenter, retrospective registry in tertiary hospitals performing EPS in patients with palpitations, without ECG-documentation of tachycardia or preexcitation, and considered highly suggestive of PSVT by a cardiologist or cardiac electrophysiologist. We analyzed clinical characteristics, results of EPS and ablation, complications, and clinical outcomes during follow-up. RESULTS: Six-hundred eighty patients from 20 centers were included. EPS showed sustained tachycardia in 60.9% of patients, and substrate potentially enabling AVNRT in 14.7%. No major/permanent complications occurred. Minor/transient complications were reported in 0.84% of patients undergoing diagnostic-only EPS and 1.8% when followed by ablation. During a 3.4-year follow-up, 76.2% of patients remained free of palpitations recurrence. Ablation (OR: 0.34, P < .01) and male gender (OR: 0.58, P = .01) predicted no recurrence. Despite a higher female proportion among patients with recurrence, (77.2% vs 63.5% among those asymptomatic during follow-up, P < .01), 73% of women in this study reported no recurrence of palpitations after EPS. CONCLUSIONS: EPS and ablation are safe and effective in preventing recurrence of nondocumented palpitations clinically suggestive of PSVT. Despite a lower efficacy, this strategy is also highly effective among women and warrants no gender differences in management.

Enhanced Levels of Adiposity, Stretch and Fibrosis Markers in Patients with Coexistent Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation.

The coexistence of heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) worsens the prognosis of patients. We aimed to study the inflammation, metabolism, adiposity, and fibrosis markers on epicardial and subcutaneous fat and blood, and their relationship with HF and AF. Samples from 185 patients undergoing cardiac surgery were collected. Levels of multi-markers on fat biopsies and plasma were analyzed. Patients were grouped by HF or AF presence. Plasma adiposity markers were increased in AF patients, while increased stretch markers correlated with HF. Patients with both AF and HF had higher ANP and GDF-15 levels. After excluding AF patients, plasma FABP4 was identified as the main HF predictor. Fat biopsies from AF patients showed an enhanced inflammatory profile. Higher levels of adiposity markers are associated with AF or HF, and higher stretch and fibrosis markers with combined AF and HF, suggesting a role of adiposity-fibrosis pathway in HF and AF coexistence.

Plasma miR-486-5p Expression Is Upregulated in Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Broader Low-Voltage Areas.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia worldwide, affecting 1% of the population over 60 years old. The incidence and prevalence of AF are increasing globally, representing a relevant health problem, suggesting that more advanced strategies for predicting risk stage are highly needed. miRNAs mediate several processes involved in AF. Our aim was to identify miRNAs with a prognostic value as biomarkers in patients referred for AF ablation and its association with LVA extent, based on low-voltage area (LVA) maps. In this study, we recruited 44 AF patients referred for catheter ablation. We measured the expression of 84 miRNAs in plasma from peripheral blood in 3 different groups based on LVA extent. Expression analysis showed that miR-486-5p was significantly increased in patients with broader LVA (4-fold, p = 0.0002; 5-fold, p = 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that miR-486-5p expression could predict atrium LVA (AUC, 0.8958; p = 0.0015). Also, miR-486-5p plasma levels were associated with AF-type (AUC, 0.7137; p = 0.0453). In addition, miR-486-5p expression was positively correlated with LVA percentage, left atrial (LA) area, and LA volume (r = 0.322, p = 0.037; r = 0.372, p = 0.015; r = 0.319, p = 0.045, respectively). These findings suggest that miR-486-5p expression might have prognostic significance in LVA extent in patients with AF.

Influence of body mass index on recurrence of atrial fibrillation after electrical cardioversion.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown an independent relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, little is known about the influence of BMI on AF recurrence after electrical cardioversion (ECV). METHODS: We selected 1121 patients who reverted to sinus rhythm after scheduled ECV and were included in three prospective Spanish registries of ECV in persistent AF. The patients were classified according to baseline BMI into three categories (normal weight, overweight, obesity). We assessed the influence of BMI on the rate of AF recurrence at 3 months. RESULTS: We identified 538 patients (48%) who had AF recurrence in the first 3 months after successful ECV. The patients who suffered AF recurrence had a higher BMI than those who remained in sinus rhythm (29.66±4.57 vs. 28.87±4.64 Kg/m2, respectively; p = 0.004). We observed a higher incidence of AF recurrence in the overweight and obese patients (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) than in those classified as normal weight (50.5% vs. 35.6%, respectively; p<0,001). BMI≥25 Kg/m2 was shown to be independently related to of AF recurrence in the multivariate analysis (OR = 1.75, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-2.58; p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Increased BMI is independently related to AF recurrence after ECV. BMI should also be taken into account when making decisions about the indication for ECV in persistent AF.

The efficacy of intensive lipid-lowering therapies on the reduction of LDLc and of major cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Statins are the cornerstone of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) for reduction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) levels and high percentage of patients require LLT combinations or alternative treatments for adequate LDLc control. METHODS: We performed an intention-to-treat meta-analysis of published data of phase III trials evaluating LLT efficacy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The primary endpoint was MACE incidence, as reported in each trial, and secondary analyses included myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality. RESULTS: Eleven clinical trials and 135,688 patients were included; seven trials tested high intensity LLT and 4 LLT combinations. Intensive LLT reduced MACE risk by 15% (12.03% vs. 13.79%, HR: 0.85 95% CI 0.80-0.90; p<0.001). The number needed to treat was 56 patients. Meta-regression analyses showed a linear correlation between absolute LDLc reductions and the risk of MACE. Significant reductions in myocardial infarction (HR: 0.83, 95% CI 0.80-0.86) and stroke (HR: 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87) were observed. Cardiovascular death rate was 3.32% in LLT treatment arm vs. 3.56% in controls, resulting in a HR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.88-0.99; p = 0.03); no effect on all-cause mortality was observed (HR: 0.97 95% CI 0.93-1.01; p = 0.09). The sensitivity analyses verified the lack of heterogeneity, except for MACE that was mainly driven by the divergent results of the 2 trials. Small study effect was detected for the assessment of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence consistently supports the efficacy of available intensity LLT for LDLc decrease on MACE and cardiovascular mortality reduction.

Role of Soluble ST2 Biomarker in Predicting Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Electrical Cardioversion or Pulmonary Vein Isolation.

This study aims to determine the predictive value of the soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) biomarker in atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence. This prospective, observational study included patients with AF referred for electrical cardioversion (ECV) or pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedures. Baseline characteristics were collected, and sST2 was determined at baseline and at 3 and 6 months of follow-up. sST2 was determined at baseline in a matched control group. Left atrial voltage mapping was performed in patients undergoing PVI. The sST2 maximal predictive capacity of AF recurrence was at the 3-month FU in the cohort of patients undergoing ECV with respect to 6-month AF recurrence with an AUC of 0.669, a cut-off point of 15,511 pg/mL, a sensitivity of 60.97%, and a specificity of 69.81%. The ROC curve of the sST2 biomarker at baseline and 3 months in the cohort of patients undergoing PVI showed AUCs of 0.539 and 0.490, respectively. The logistic regression model identified the rhythm (AF) and the sST2 biomarker at 3 months as independent factors for recurrence at 6 months in the ECV cohort. In the logistic regression model, sST2 was not an independent factor for recurrence at 6 months of follow-up in the PVI cohort. In patients who underwent ECV, sST2 values at 3 months may provide utility to predict AF recurrence at 6 months of follow-up. In patients who underwent PVI, sST2 had no value in predicting AF recurrence at 6 months of follow-up.

Clinical Benefit of Bempedoic Acid in Randomized Clinical Trials.

Bempedoic acid is a selective inhibitor of the adenosine triphosphate citrate lyase that reduces low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) levels by 17% to 28%. Although the Evaluation of Major Cardiovascular Events in Patients With, or at High Risk for, Cardiovascular Disease Who Are Statin Intolerant Treated With Bempedoic Acid (CLEAR-OUTCOMES) trials demonstrated the efficacy on cardiovascular outcomes there is a controversy related to the possible net clinical benefit. Thereafter, we performed an intention-to-treat meta-analysis in line with recommendations from the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. The primary outcome of the metanalysis was the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events, defined by each study protocol. Secondary outcomes for the analyses were myocardial infarction, stroke, myocardial revascularization, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Results of 4 clinical trials evaluated contained a total of 17,324 patients; 9,236 received bempedoic acid for a median of 46.6 months. The mean baseline LDLc was 129.4 (22.8) mg/100 ml and treatment was associated with a mean LDLc reduction of 26.0 (12.6) mg/100 ml. Treatment with bempedoic acid significantly reduced the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81 to 0.96), myocardial infarction (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.89) and myocardial revascularization (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92); the crude incidence of stroke, cardiovascular or all-cause mortality were lower in patients in the bempedoic acid groups although no significant risk reduction was observed. No heterogeneity was observed in any of the end points. In conclusion, the metanalysis of the 4 clinical trials currently available with bempedoic acid provides reliable evidence of its clinical benefit with no signs of heterogeneity or harm.

Atrial fibrillation ablation in patients with arrhythmia-induced cardiomyopathy: a prospective multicentre study.

AIMS: This study aims to investigate the clinical and biochemical characteristics of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) referred for ablation who develop arrhythmia-induced cardiomyopathy (AiCM) as well as their long-term outcomes after catheter ablation (CA). METHODS AND RESULTS: A prospective multicentre study was conducted on consecutive AF patients who underwent CA. AiCM was defined as the development of heart failure in the presence of AF and an improvement of left ventricular fraction by at least 10% at 6 months after ablation. A subgroup of patients underwent peripheral and left atrial blood samples [galectin-3, fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4), and soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE)] at the time of the procedure. Of the 769 patients who underwent AF ablation, 135 (17.56%) met the criteria for AiCM. Independent predictors of AiCM included persistent AF, male gender, left atrial volume, QRS width, active smoking, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Biomarker analysis revealed that sRAGE, FABP4, and galectin-3 levels were not predictive of AiCM development nor did they differ between groups or predict recurrence. There were no differences in AF recurrence between patients with and without AiCM (30.83% vs. 27.77%; P = 0.392) during a median follow-up of 23.83 months (inter-quartile range 9-36). CONCLUSIONS: In the subset of patients referred for AF ablation, the development of AiCM was associated with persistent AF and CKD. Biomarker analysis was not different between groups nor predicted recurrence. Patients with AiCM benefited from ablation, with a significant improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction and similar AF recurrence rates to those without AiCM.

Cognitive Function with PCSK9 Inhibitors: A 24-Month Follow-Up Observational Prospective Study in the Real World-MEMOGAL Study.

INTRODUCTION: The cognitive safety of monoclonal antibody proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) has been established in clinical trials, but not yet in real-world observational studies. We assessed the cognitive function in patients initiating PCSK9i, and differences in cognitive function domains, to analyze subgroups by the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) achieved, and differences between alirocumab and evolocumab. METHODS: This has a multicenter, quasi-experimental design carried out in 12 Spanish hospitals from May 2020 to February 2023. Cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). RESULTS: Among 158 patients followed for a median of 99 weeks, 52% were taking evolocumab and 48% alirocumab; the mean change from baseline in MoCA score at follow-up was + 0.28 [95% CI (- 0.17 to 0.73; p = 0.216)]. There were no significant differences in the secondary endpoints-the visuospatial/executive domain + 0.04 (p = 0.651), naming domain - 0.01 (p = 0.671), attention/memory domain + 0.01 (p = 0.945); language domain - 0.10 (p = 0.145), abstraction domain + 0.03 (p = 0.624), and orientation domain - 0.05 (p = 0.224)-but for delayed recall memory the mean change was statistically significant (improvement) + 0.44 (p = 0.001). Neither were there any differences in the three stratified subgroups according to lowest attained LDL-C level-0-54 mg/dL, 55-69 mg/dL and ≥ 70 mg/dL; p = 0.454-or between alirocumab and evolocumab arms. CONCLUSION: We did not find effect of monoclonal antibody PCSK9i on neurocognitive function over 24 months of treatment, either in global MoCA score or different cognitive domains. An improvement in delayed recall memory was shown. The study showed no differences in the cognitive function between the prespecified subgroups, even among patients who achieved very low levels of LDL-C. There were no differences between alirocumab and evolocumab. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTtrials.gov Identifier number NCT04319081.

Gender-Related Differences in Atrial Substrate in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

Gender-related differences have been reported in patients who underwent pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). Atrial substrate plays a role in the outcomes after ablation but gender-related differences in atrial substrate have never been described in detail. We sought to analyze gender-related differences in atrial remodeling (spontaneous low-voltage zones [LVZs]) and their clinical relevance after PVI. We conducted a prospective multicenter study, including consecutive patients who underwent first PVI-only atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation. LVZs were analyzed on high-density electroanatomical maps collected with multipolar catheter, before PVI. In total, 262 patients (61 ± 11 years, 31% female, 50% persistent AF) were followed for 28 months. In women, LVZs were larger (10% vs 4% of left atrial surface [p <0.001]) and female gender was independently associated with fourfold higher risk of having advanced (LVZ > 15%) atrial remodeling (odds ratio 4.56, p <0.001). AF recurrence-free survival was not different between men and women (log-rank p = 0.2). Although LVZs were independently associated higher AF recurrences at multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.2, p = 0.038), female gender was not (HR 1.4, p = 0.211). Specifically, the LVZ cutoff to predict outcomes was different in men and women: >5% in men (HR 3.0, p <0.001), >15% in women (HR 2.7, p = 0.02). In conclusion, women have more widespread LVZ in all left atrial regions. Despite more extensive atrial remodeling, the AF recurrence rate is similar in men and women, and LVZs become prognostic in women only at high burden (>15%). LVZs seem to have a different prognostic role in men and women.

Effect of dapagliflozin on COVID-19 infection and risk of hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: Dapagliflozin has been proposed as a potential treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by reducing cytokine production and inflammation. However, there are limited data on its effectiveness. We aimed to evaluate the impact of dapagliflozin on COVID-19 severity (including hospitalization risk, ICU admission, in-hospital death and progression to severe COVID-19) and its potential on susceptibility to COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study. For aim 1, we assessed COVID-19 severity in cases (positive PCR patients requiring hospitalization) and matched controls (negative PCR patients or positive PCR patients not requiring hospitalization). For aim 2, we compared positive PCR cases (hospitalized and non-hospitalized) with controls. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated using a generalized linear mixed model. RESULTS: We analysed 86 602 subjects: 3060 were hospitalized cases, 26 757 were non-hospitalized cases and 56 785 were controls. Among the hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 228 were admitted to the ICU and 413 died. Dapagliflozin had no effect on the risk of hospitalization (aOR 0.98; 95% CI 0.65-1.48; P = 0.915), ICU admissions (aOR 1.21; 95% CI 0.34-4.25; P = 0.767) or in-hospital death (aOR 1.33; 95% CI 0.53-3.30; P = 0.543). Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of progression to severe COVID-19 by 35%, but this was not statistically significant (aOR 0.65; 95% CI 0.40-1.06; P = 0.086). Dapagliflozin was associated with a 30% increased risk of susceptibility to COVID-19 infection (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.62; P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Use of dapagliflozin prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with an increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, mortality or progression to severe COVID-19. However, it was associated with an increased risk of susceptibility to COVID-19 infection.

Left ventricular functional recovery after atrial fibrillation catheter ablation in heart failure: a prediction model.

AIMS: Management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant heart failure (HF) remains complex. The Antwerp score, based on four parameters [QRS >120 ms (2 points), known aetiology (2 points), paroxysmal AF (1 point), severe atrial dilation (1 point)] adequately estimated the probability of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) recovery after AF ablation in a single-centre cohort. The present study aims to externally validate this prediction model in a large European multi-centre cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 605 patients (61.1 ± 9.4 years, 23.8% females, 79.8% with persistent AF) with HF and impaired LVEF (<50%) undergoing AF ablation in 8 European centres were retrospectively identified. According to the LVEF changes at 12-month echocardiography, 427 (70%) patients fulfilled the '2021 Universal Definition of HF' criteria for LVEF recovery and were defined as 'responders'. External validation of the score yielded good discrimination and calibration {area under the curve 0.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.89], P < .001; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .29}. Patients with a score < 2 had a 93% probability of LVEF recovery as opposed to only 24% in patients with a score > 3. Responders experienced more often positive ventricular remodelling [odds ratio (OR) 8.91, 95% CI 4.45-17.84, P < .001], fewer HF hospitalizations (OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.18, P < .001) and lower mortality (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.04-0.31, P < .001). CONCLUSION: In this multi-centre study, a simple four-parameter score predicted LVEF recovery after AF ablation in patients with HF and discriminated clinical outcomes. These findings support the use of the Antwerp score to standardize shared decision-making regarding AF ablation referral in future clinical studies.